The Early-Warning Frog


Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
If you throw a frog into hot water, she'll jump out. But if you put her in tepid water and turn the heat up slowly, she'll get used to it and stay until the water's so hot it boils her.

Unless, that is, she's a very smart frog and catches on quick. Then when the heat gets too much for her, she jumps out before she gets boiled. If the other frogs see her, they might jump out in time, too. That makes her an


Early-Warning Frog


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    Friday, November 05, 2004
    How the Liberal Elite Are Destroying Our Children

    What's important to fundie Xtians:
    Cherokee County fifth-graders are reading literature that includes profanity and that needs to stop, several parents said Thursday at the school board meeting.

    The parents condemned the school system's method of approving books for elementary students as well as the process for challenging an offensive book. They said there needs to be more rigorous screening of elementary level books that contain possibly objectionable words and there needs to be a way to alert parents to these possibilities before the books are assigned.

    Lynn Holtzclaw said her fifth-grade son brought home two books this year, "Bearstone" and "Charley Skedaddle," that included swear words like damn and hell. "Before you lay your head down tonight you should really think about this issue," Holtzclaw told the board.

    Board president Kelly Campbell told the parents that the system has a policy to deal with "challenged" books and the parents should follow that procedure. But the parent said the process is too little, too late. By the time they challenge a book, their children already have discovered the offending words or phrases by reading the book.

    When Holtzclaw complained to her son's teacher and principal, she was told to let her son read another book or block out the offending words. But she and other parents said they don't have time to check every book their child reads. The parents said the school system should contact the publisher of the books and demand that the words be removed for any future orders.

    "Parents aren't aware that these words are in their books," said Melissa Sims, whose son also read the books at R.M. Moore Elementary School. "What else are they letting through?"

    Books and other instructional materials are selected by a group of principals, teachers, media specialists, students, parents and other school system officials.

    The parents said they are specifically concerned with books used at the elementary level.

    "We just want the words removed. They're great books," Sims said.

    The parents are circulating a petition to get the school board to change its policy. Sims said Thursday that more than 300 people have signed.
    Fifth-graders are 12 years old. Ever known a 12-year-old? These parents think their kids 'discovered' profanity in a book? I guess they must none of them have a tv set....

    Posted at 11:29 am by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    2 took the bait  

    Quick Takes


    • From archy by way of The Gadflyer
      I was not elected to serve one party, but to serve one nation. The President of the United States is the President of every single American, of every race and every background. Whether you voted for me or not, I will do my best to serve your interests and I will work to earn your respect.
      - George W. Bush, December 14, 2000

      So today I want to speak to every person who voted for my opponent: To make this nation stronger and better I will need your support, and I will work to earn it. I will do all I can do to deserve your trust.
      - George W. Bush, November 3, 2004
      Aww, come on baby. You gotta believe me. I really mean it this time.

      Do not trust the drunk on the porch promising that this is the last time for his bad behavior. He'll say all those pretty words that make us so weak: unity, tolerance, bipartisan spirit, compassion, respect for others, fair play. He'll say anything to get in, but we know, as soon we turn our back, he'll be back to his old triumphalist and unilateralist tricks.

      Deadbolt the door. Turn off the porch light. Turn on the radio and turn it up till we can't hear his pretty words. Tomorrow we're calling the locksmith and starting a new life.

    • From Paul Krugman:
      President Bush isn't a conservative. He's a radical - the leader of a coalition that deeply dislikes America as it is. Part of that coalition wants to tear down the legacy of Franklin Roosevelt, eviscerating Social Security and, eventually, Medicare. Another part wants to break down the barriers between church and state. And thanks to a heavy turnout by evangelical Christians, Mr. Bush has four more years to advance that radical agenda.
      I don't hope for more and worse scandals and failures during Mr. Bush's second term, but I do expect them. The resurgence of Al Qaeda, the debacle in Iraq, the explosion of the budget deficit and the failure to create jobs weren't things that just happened to occur on Mr. Bush's watch. They were the consequences of bad policies made by people who let ideology trump reality.

      Those people still have Mr. Bush's ear, and his election victory will only give them the confidence to make even bigger mistakes.

    • From Thomas Frank:
      While conservatives were sharpening their sense of class victimization, Democrats had all but abandoned the field. For some time, the centrist Democratic establishment in Washington has been enamored of the notion that, since the industrial age is ending, the party must forget about blue-collar workers and their issues and embrace the "professional" class. During the 2004 campaign these new, business-friendly Democrats received high-profile assistance from idealistic tycoons and openly embraced trendy management theory. They imagined themselves the "metro" party of cool billionaires engaged in some kind of cosmic combat with the square billionaires of the "retro" Republican Party.

      Yet this would have been a perfect year to give the Republicans a Trumanesque spanking for the many corporate scandals that they have countenanced and, in some ways, enabled. Taking such a stand would also have provided Democrats with a way to address and maybe even defeat the angry populism that informs the "values" issues while simultaneously mobilizing their base.

    • Bush's first act as the newly re-elected President? He's taking a vacation.



    Posted at 11:12 am by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    Go ahead, say it. I dare you.  

    TheTriumph of the Illusion 1

    There are two truths about the election that need airing.

    1. Another Stolen Election

    Ohio is no longer a Democratic state since the destruction of union strength that began under Reagan and will reach fever-pitch in the next two years, but it isn't quite as Red as the election seems to demonstrate, either. Ohio was the first battleground state called on account of voting machine error. Sixteen machines showed negative results, one boasting a negative 25Mil votes. Between twenty and thirty other machines had to be re-calibrated during the voting because their totals were so far off. The re-calibration meant that all the votes that had been cast up to that point were lost. Ordinarily, this level of machine failure might be expected and no conspiracy need be activated.

    But this machine failure happened exclusively in key precincts that ordinarily go Democratic, precincts everybody expected to go Democratic--and then they didn't. None of the machines that failed were in Republican precincts. NONE. Now that is extraordinary.

    In Florida, New Mexico, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, voting machines regularly switched a Kerry vote to a Bush vote. For all the ones that were caught, there must have been thousands that weren't since most voters didn't know about the glitch, wouldn't know there was a reason they'd better go back and check their ballot.

    There were NO reports of Bush votes being switched to Kerry.

    In Florida, black voters were shuffled from polling place to polling place, sometimes four or five times in an effort to discourage them from voting. When they were finally allowed to vote, they were given provisional ballots because they weren't voting in the right precinct. The Republicans then challenged those ballots on those grounds. Those votes were never counted, tens of thousands of them.

    In Miami's Dade County, tens of thousands more voters asked weeks ago for absentee ballots so there would be a paper trail. Those ballots didn't arrive in heavily Democratic precincts until the day of the election. In Republican precincts, they arrived last week.

    There's more. It was a shotgun approach--throw everything you can at the wall and hope enough of it sticks. It did. Ohio's narrow margin is almost certainly a GOP illusion, and results in Florida and New Mexico, at the very least, are suspect. The combination of Republican-favoring e-machines along with the standard bag of dirty Republican election tricks were just enough to do what they wanted done--appear to give Bush a big enough lead to discourage wimpy Democrats from digging in and dragging the country through a different version of the 2000 scenario--a lose/lose situation for them: if they didn't fight, they'd never know they won; if they did, the Pubs would be all over them for being bad sports, for trying to steal the election through the courts, and for deliberately creating another 2000 for petty political payback.

    Kerry did what he had to do, but let's not fool ourselves any more. Fair elections are a thing of the past. Two in a row will be three will be four.... Now they know a) how to do it, and b) that nobody will call them on it. They are pumped, they are arrogant, they are certain they are right, and they are just as certain that liberals and Democrats are sheep they can push around, evil sheep, destroyers of The American Dream (as defined by them) who deserve to be treated like enemies. Politics has always been a blood sport; now it is to the death, no holds, no tricks, no cheats, no vicious tactics barred. They have the power and they mean to hold on to it, now and forever, whatever it takes.

    If you think they won't call off the next election if they think they can't win it, think again. They already floated the trial balloon. If you think the debacle in Iraq will slow them down, think again. The neocons are still there, Cheney is still listening to them, and they still want Teheran.
    Echoing increasingly threatening noises from the government of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon about preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, neo-cons are calling for Washington to undertake covert action, at the very least, to oust what some of them call the "terror masters" in Tehran as part of a more general "World War IV" against alleged Arab and Islamic extremism. (The Cold War is widely considered as World War III.)

    Some neo-cons are even complaining that if Bush had been serious about the "war on terrorism", he should have taken on Iran after Afghanistan, rather than Iraq.

    "Had we seen the war for what it was, we would not have started with Iraq, but with Iran, the mother of modern Islamic terrorism, the creator of Hezbollah, the ally of al-Qaeda, the sponsor of [Abu Musab al-]Zarqawi, the longtime sponsor of Fatah and the backbone of Hamas," wrote part-time Pentagon consultant Michael Ledeen of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) this week.
    Neo-conservatives are also busy stoking tensions with Syria, even amid indications that Washington and Damascus are feeling their way toward some kind of "modus vivendi" that may even include joint military patrols along the latter's porous border with Iraq.

    Last week they heard from a Syrian exile, Farid Ghadry, who apparently aspires to become the Ahmed Chalabi - the neo-con boosted leader of the exiled Iraqi National Congress whose standing in Washington plummeted after it was alleged he passed secrets to Iran - of his homeland.

    In addition to lobbying for the pending Syria Liberation Act, which would commit the US government to "regime change" in Damascus, Ghadry charged that the government of President Bashir Assad was building "a new colony of terrorism" for youths in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley.
    In short, nothing has changed. Nothing. Except that Bush now thinks he has a 'mandate' to do whatever the hell he wants and we better all just shut up about it.

    Were ours a primarily reality-based society, therein would lie the seeds of the radcon downfall, possibly even their destruction. But it isn't.
    The error that progressives have consistently committed over the years is to underestimate the vitality of ignorance in America. Listen to what the red state citizens say about themselves, the songs they write, and the sermons they flock to. They know who they are—they are full of original sin and they have a taste for violence. The blue state citizens make the Rousseauvian mistake of thinking humans are essentially good, and so they never realize when they are about to be slugged from behind.

    Here is how ignorance works: First, they put the fear of God into you—if you don't believe in the literal word of the Bible, you will burn in hell. Of course, the literal word of the Bible is tremendously contradictory, and so you must abdicate all critical thinking, and accept a simple but logical system of belief that is dangerous to question. A corollary to this point is that they make sure you understand that Satan resides in the toils and snares of complex thought and so it is best not try it.

    Next, they tell you that you are the best of a bad lot (humans, that is) and that as bad as you are, if you stick with them, you are among the chosen. This is flattering and reassuring, and also encourages you to imagine the terrible fates of those you envy and resent. American politicians ALWAYS operate by a similar sort of flattery, and so Americans are never induced to question themselves. That's what happened to Jimmy Carter—he asked Americans to take responsibility for their profligate ways, and promptly lost to Ronald Reagan, who told them once again that they could do anything they wanted. The history of the last four years shows that red state types, above all, do not want to be told what to do—they prefer to be ignorant. As a result, they are virtually unteachable.

    Third, and most important, when life grows difficult or fearsome, they (politicians, preachers, pundits) encourage you to cling to your ignorance with even more fervor. But by this time you don't need much encouragement—you've put all your eggs into the ignorance basket, and really, some kind of miraculous fruition (preferably accompanied by the torment of your enemies, and the ignorant always have plenty of enemies) is your only hope. If you are sufficiently ignorant, you won't even know how dangerous your policies are until they have destroyed you, and then you can always blame others.

    (emphasis added)
    It is an ignorance that is a blessing to those who exploit it.
    The reason the Democrats have lost five of the last seven presidential elections is simple: A generation ago, the big capitalists, who have no morals, as we know, decided to make use of the religious right in their class war against the middle class and against the regulations that were protecting those whom they considered to be their rightful prey—workers and consumers. The architects of this strategy knew perfectly well that they were exploiting, among other unsavory qualities, a long American habit of virulent racism, but they did it anyway, and we see the outcome now—Cheney is the capitalist arm and Bush is the religious arm. They know no boundaries or rules. They are predatory and resentful, amoral, avaricious, and arrogant. Lots of Americans like and admire them because lots of Americans, even those who don't share those same qualities, don't know which end is up. Can the Democrats appeal to such voters? Do they want to? The Republicans have sold their souls for power. Must everyone?
    It's a question the whole progressive community is asking itself--and the Democratic Party. Facts will not move the people Jane Smiley describes in Slate. Neither will appeals to reason. They have given over their reason to a Higher Power. As Bush said, they just know in their hearts that what they believe is true, is true, no matter what the facts seem to be.

    The Bush win was as much a triumph of that ignorance-driven illusion of Rightness regardless of reality as it was a triumph of arrogant theft. We ignore that truth at our peril. Jane's prescriptive advice is the most practical and realistic I have seen, so I'll let her have the last word.
    Progressives have only one course of action now: React quickly to every outrage—red state types love to cheat and intimidate, so we have to assume the worst and call them on it every time. We have to give them more to think about than they can handle—to always appeal to reason and common sense, and the law, even when they can't understand it and don't respond. They cannot be allowed to keep any secrets. Tens of millions of people didn't vote—they are watching, too, and have to be shown that we are ready and willing to fight, and that the battle is worth fighting. And in addition, we have to remember that threats to democracy from the right always collapse. Whatever their short-term appeal, they are borne of hubris and hatred, and will destroy their purveyors in the end.
    Let's hope so.


    Update: Matt in comments want to know if I have any links to support this. Matt must be new here. So for Matt and anyone else who hasn't been following this, you can find links here and here and here and here and here and here. Also here and here and here.

    That should get you started and it covers most of what I said and a lot more. The rest came from radio news reports on NPR and AirAmerica like this one. There's a lot more out there but that should get you started. Those links will lead to other links that lead to other links... You'll be surprised.

    Posted at 04:09 am by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    1 took the bait  

    Thursday, November 04, 2004
    Resolute


    Posted at 10:46 am by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    Go ahead, say it. I dare you.  

    The New America

    David Neiwert:
    Well, that didn't take long. I figured it was only a matter of time before the conservative façade of civility crumbled, but this time it came off faster than the pancake on a ten-dollar hooker.

    Bill Bennett, that paragon of moral virtue, was the first to explain that "national healing" is just another word for "culture war":
    Having restored decency to the White House, President Bush now has a mandate to affect policy that will promote a more decent society, through both politics and law. His supporters want that, and have given him a mandate in their popular and electoral votes to see to it. Now is the time to begin our long, national cultural renewal ("The Great Relearning," as novelist Tom Wolfe calls it) -- no less in legislation than in federal court appointments. It is, after all, the main reason George W. Bush was reelected.
    Just when I got done saying that one of the important things that distinguishes movement conservatism from genuine fascism was the lack of any major push for national renewal and purification … jeez.
    We are now officially in the hands of fascists. Who wants to be the first to congratulate them?


    Posted at 10:29 am by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    6 took the bait  

    Wednesday, November 03, 2004
    The Bush Stolen-Election Wagon



    This was the second stolen election. Check the exit polls in New Mexico and Ohio.

    Posted at 04:40 pm by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    4 took the bait  

    Republicans Are Closet Pervs

    Abby and her Dad:

    Let's psychoanalyze the election for shits and giggles. My Dad sent me this e-mail this morning:

    This election was lost on religious grounds:

    * abortion is bad
    * marriage is only for heterosexuals
    * stem cell research is evil because it's messing with sex and babies or something like that

    When it's all said and done, all three have to do with sex. All three "foundational" issues have to do with not messing with sexual things.

    Actually, the last election was probably lost on similar grounds:

    * Gore was with Clinton
    * Clinton was sexual
    * ergo, no Gore

    So what's foundational about religion has to do with sex, and now what has become foundational in politics has to do with sex...

    Amazing!

    Sex is bad, but aggression is good.

    Amazing!
    I responded:
    Republicans are closet pervs.
    He responded:
    You got it!

    Freud, for all of his failings, had his finger on the pulse of the human psyche. It's a great pleasure for an aging, balding, psychoanalyst to have a daughter who immediately got the point of the missive.

    It's easier to rationalize aggressive, power-driven motives than sexual ones....

    Thanks..

    Posted at 04:31 pm by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    2 took the bait  

    Hope

    Adam Lipscomb:




    It’s a fragile thing. The last gift in Pandora’s Box, and in some ways the most cruel. Hope gets us up in the morning and keeps us slogging forward in the worst of crises. On occasion, Hope sets us up for a fall.


    Right now, I’ve lost a lot of hope.


    It looks like the gay-bashing agenda of the right gave Bush the coattails he needed to win Ohio, and 10 other states have also weighed in to state that, in their opinion, faggots and dykes aren’t really people and thus don’t deserve the same treatment under the law as “normal” folks.


    President Bush is declaring victory, and thumping his chest as if he’s received yet another Divine Mandate to continue his program of chipping away at our civil liberties, wrecking the economy and selling America down the river in the name of political expediency.


    For some reason, it looks like a majority of Americans bought the hype that pre-emptive war and blind ignorance are the keys to security.


    Watching the returns last night, I could feel the hope I had in an end to the ‘Thug’s lock on the government eroding. In state after state, Americans rejected forethought, rejected common sense, rejected social justice. I don’t understand why so many Americans are willing to sell their and their neighbors’ future down the river for a posturing dolt that is proud not to read, that is afraid of being confronted with opposing viewpoints, that fervently believes God speaks to him and him alone.


    I’m disgusted. As I write this, wondering if Blogger is ever going to let me log in this morning, I see that Kerry has conceded to Bush. Four more years of the nightmare. Four more years of running government like it’s some kind of slot machine rigged to pay off only to the fat cats and the religious right. Four more years of young men and women dying for lies, and innocent civilians waking up just in time to see the bomb dropping into their homes in a “regrettable incident of collateral damage”. Four more years of pious posturing and sanctimonious bigotry.


    Words cannot describe the anger and desolation and lost promise I feel right now.


    Hell is seeing hope die.

    Posted at 04:27 pm by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    1 took the bait  

    Next Steps

    Nick Lewis:

    "In war as in life, it is often necessary when some cherished scheme has failed, to take up the best alternative open, and if so, it is folly not to work for it with all your might." -Winston Churchill

    Today, we progressives face a bleak reality. Our entire movement has traditionally depended upon people being intelligent and good hearted. However, look where our idealism has gotten us: a Kerry defeat, more Republicans in the house and senate, and what will probably become the most conservative supreme court in our history. I've dropped the dream of "waking people up". I've decided to cross over to the dark side.

    Unless we Progressives can learn the "dark arts of Rove", we don't stand a chance. Its time that we learn to pluck the electorate's strings of hatred, vanity, and stupidity. But don't fret, we just have to change our message, not our ideals. God forbid one of us gets elected, we could exercise our power the way we always knew we would have: for peace, social justice, and freedom.

    Posted at 03:26 pm by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    2 took the bait  

    Initial Thoughts

    Eric Martin:

    First and foremost I am disappointed. I also have to say that my predictions were in many instances incorrect - and that is probably an understatement. I am also saddened that in America, any election would have to be tainted with doubts and suspicions because our legislatures did not require electronic voting machines to produce a paper trail - especially when those same machines have such a history of erratic results. I know that exit polls are not always very reliable, but both rounds that were taken yesterday showed Kerry with solid leads in many of the states that have subsequently gone to Bush, and those same states were using voting machines without paper trails and with a dubious record of security and accuracy.

    Assuming that the results are legitimate, and that there was not fraud or error in key states like Florida and Ohio, I would point out that in reality it was a very difficult task to unseat an incumbent president in a time of war, especially one who presided over the events of 9/11. The attack of 9/11 and the war in Iraq are sources of anxiety, fear and insecurity for most Americans. Fear is the most powerful motivator, and it triggers a whole mode of thought that departs from rationality and empirical analysis, and instead lets emotion hold sway. This allows a president with a record of incompetence to remain in office, despite the evidence. If you don't think that the GOP was banking on this, just go back and look at the Republican convention. It was a fear fest, and much of the rhetoric on the stump and in the television ads (wolf pack?) was designed to play up the fear factor. And it wasn't just fear of terrorist attacks. Fear of homosexual marriage also played an important role in determining the voting habits of the electorate. These messages dominated any other policy proposals or reference to the record of the last four years.

    If there is a bright side to this story, it is that this should give Democrats the impetus to redefine their Party, the discourse, the language, and the frames within which the debate in this country is held. The Republicans had that moment in 1964 with the resounding defeat of Barry Goldwater. Since that time they have dedicated time, energy, brainpower and an enormous amount of money to the cultivation of think tanks and media outlets that produce and dissemanate conservative ideology, conservative language, conservative narratives, and a set of frames that have helped them to sway Americans to their side of the aisle. It is time for the Democrats to play catch up. This is our Goldwater moment. Let's hope we follow through with equal and superior determination and success.

    Posted at 03:23 pm by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    Go ahead, say it. I dare you.  

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