The Early-Warning Frog


Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
If you throw a frog into hot water, she'll jump out. But if you put her in tepid water and turn the heat up slowly, she'll get used to it and stay until the water's so hot it boils her.

Unless, that is, she's a very smart frog and catches on quick. Then when the heat gets too much for her, she jumps out before she gets boiled. If the other frogs see her, they might jump out in time, too. That makes her an


Early-Warning Frog


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    Thursday, November 04, 2004
    Resolute


    Posted at 10:46 am by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    Go ahead, say it. I dare you.  

    The New America

    David Neiwert:
    Well, that didn't take long. I figured it was only a matter of time before the conservative façade of civility crumbled, but this time it came off faster than the pancake on a ten-dollar hooker.

    Bill Bennett, that paragon of moral virtue, was the first to explain that "national healing" is just another word for "culture war":
    Having restored decency to the White House, President Bush now has a mandate to affect policy that will promote a more decent society, through both politics and law. His supporters want that, and have given him a mandate in their popular and electoral votes to see to it. Now is the time to begin our long, national cultural renewal ("The Great Relearning," as novelist Tom Wolfe calls it) -- no less in legislation than in federal court appointments. It is, after all, the main reason George W. Bush was reelected.
    Just when I got done saying that one of the important things that distinguishes movement conservatism from genuine fascism was the lack of any major push for national renewal and purification … jeez.
    We are now officially in the hands of fascists. Who wants to be the first to congratulate them?


    Posted at 10:29 am by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    6 took the bait  

    Wednesday, November 03, 2004
    The Bush Stolen-Election Wagon



    This was the second stolen election. Check the exit polls in New Mexico and Ohio.

    Posted at 04:40 pm by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    4 took the bait  

    Republicans Are Closet Pervs

    Abby and her Dad:

    Let's psychoanalyze the election for shits and giggles. My Dad sent me this e-mail this morning:

    This election was lost on religious grounds:

    * abortion is bad
    * marriage is only for heterosexuals
    * stem cell research is evil because it's messing with sex and babies or something like that

    When it's all said and done, all three have to do with sex. All three "foundational" issues have to do with not messing with sexual things.

    Actually, the last election was probably lost on similar grounds:

    * Gore was with Clinton
    * Clinton was sexual
    * ergo, no Gore

    So what's foundational about religion has to do with sex, and now what has become foundational in politics has to do with sex...

    Amazing!

    Sex is bad, but aggression is good.

    Amazing!
    I responded:
    Republicans are closet pervs.
    He responded:
    You got it!

    Freud, for all of his failings, had his finger on the pulse of the human psyche. It's a great pleasure for an aging, balding, psychoanalyst to have a daughter who immediately got the point of the missive.

    It's easier to rationalize aggressive, power-driven motives than sexual ones....

    Thanks..

    Posted at 04:31 pm by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    2 took the bait  

    Hope

    Adam Lipscomb:




    It’s a fragile thing. The last gift in Pandora’s Box, and in some ways the most cruel. Hope gets us up in the morning and keeps us slogging forward in the worst of crises. On occasion, Hope sets us up for a fall.


    Right now, I’ve lost a lot of hope.


    It looks like the gay-bashing agenda of the right gave Bush the coattails he needed to win Ohio, and 10 other states have also weighed in to state that, in their opinion, faggots and dykes aren’t really people and thus don’t deserve the same treatment under the law as “normal” folks.


    President Bush is declaring victory, and thumping his chest as if he’s received yet another Divine Mandate to continue his program of chipping away at our civil liberties, wrecking the economy and selling America down the river in the name of political expediency.


    For some reason, it looks like a majority of Americans bought the hype that pre-emptive war and blind ignorance are the keys to security.


    Watching the returns last night, I could feel the hope I had in an end to the ‘Thug’s lock on the government eroding. In state after state, Americans rejected forethought, rejected common sense, rejected social justice. I don’t understand why so many Americans are willing to sell their and their neighbors’ future down the river for a posturing dolt that is proud not to read, that is afraid of being confronted with opposing viewpoints, that fervently believes God speaks to him and him alone.


    I’m disgusted. As I write this, wondering if Blogger is ever going to let me log in this morning, I see that Kerry has conceded to Bush. Four more years of the nightmare. Four more years of running government like it’s some kind of slot machine rigged to pay off only to the fat cats and the religious right. Four more years of young men and women dying for lies, and innocent civilians waking up just in time to see the bomb dropping into their homes in a “regrettable incident of collateral damage”. Four more years of pious posturing and sanctimonious bigotry.


    Words cannot describe the anger and desolation and lost promise I feel right now.


    Hell is seeing hope die.

    Posted at 04:27 pm by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    1 took the bait  

    Next Steps

    Nick Lewis:

    "In war as in life, it is often necessary when some cherished scheme has failed, to take up the best alternative open, and if so, it is folly not to work for it with all your might." -Winston Churchill

    Today, we progressives face a bleak reality. Our entire movement has traditionally depended upon people being intelligent and good hearted. However, look where our idealism has gotten us: a Kerry defeat, more Republicans in the house and senate, and what will probably become the most conservative supreme court in our history. I've dropped the dream of "waking people up". I've decided to cross over to the dark side.

    Unless we Progressives can learn the "dark arts of Rove", we don't stand a chance. Its time that we learn to pluck the electorate's strings of hatred, vanity, and stupidity. But don't fret, we just have to change our message, not our ideals. God forbid one of us gets elected, we could exercise our power the way we always knew we would have: for peace, social justice, and freedom.

    Posted at 03:26 pm by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    2 took the bait  

    Initial Thoughts

    Eric Martin:

    First and foremost I am disappointed. I also have to say that my predictions were in many instances incorrect - and that is probably an understatement. I am also saddened that in America, any election would have to be tainted with doubts and suspicions because our legislatures did not require electronic voting machines to produce a paper trail - especially when those same machines have such a history of erratic results. I know that exit polls are not always very reliable, but both rounds that were taken yesterday showed Kerry with solid leads in many of the states that have subsequently gone to Bush, and those same states were using voting machines without paper trails and with a dubious record of security and accuracy.

    Assuming that the results are legitimate, and that there was not fraud or error in key states like Florida and Ohio, I would point out that in reality it was a very difficult task to unseat an incumbent president in a time of war, especially one who presided over the events of 9/11. The attack of 9/11 and the war in Iraq are sources of anxiety, fear and insecurity for most Americans. Fear is the most powerful motivator, and it triggers a whole mode of thought that departs from rationality and empirical analysis, and instead lets emotion hold sway. This allows a president with a record of incompetence to remain in office, despite the evidence. If you don't think that the GOP was banking on this, just go back and look at the Republican convention. It was a fear fest, and much of the rhetoric on the stump and in the television ads (wolf pack?) was designed to play up the fear factor. And it wasn't just fear of terrorist attacks. Fear of homosexual marriage also played an important role in determining the voting habits of the electorate. These messages dominated any other policy proposals or reference to the record of the last four years.

    If there is a bright side to this story, it is that this should give Democrats the impetus to redefine their Party, the discourse, the language, and the frames within which the debate in this country is held. The Republicans had that moment in 1964 with the resounding defeat of Barry Goldwater. Since that time they have dedicated time, energy, brainpower and an enormous amount of money to the cultivation of think tanks and media outlets that produce and dissemanate conservative ideology, conservative language, conservative narratives, and a set of frames that have helped them to sway Americans to their side of the aisle. It is time for the Democrats to play catch up. This is our Goldwater moment. Let's hope we follow through with equal and superior determination and success.

    Posted at 03:23 pm by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    Go ahead, say it. I dare you.  

    The Aftermath

    cul heath:

    Wow! What a horrible outcome... Not just the probable win by Bush, which I concede and grudgingly congratulate my conservative friends for, nor the personally heart crushing and demoralizing realization that I do not live in a secular democracy, but horrible because of the uncertainty that will be there even after the final counts. If this election demonstrates anything it is that federal elections have to be standardized at a national level and that the electoral college must be abandoned. I find this morass of extended recounts simply unacceptable.

    What won the election for Bush, if that is indeed how it turns out, is the evangelical vote which is a scary thought just in itself. We have moved from a secular politic to a theocratic one with public policies now wide open to being based on articles of faith. Given the US position of raw power in the world, the idea that it will form policies based on the exclusionary and irrational belief systems of people who embrace notions like the Rapture is appalling.

    For the moment I am depressed and exhausted by it all.

    Posted at 03:14 pm by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    Go ahead, say it. I dare you.  

    The Opportunity Before Us

    Kathy B:

    I know it's not over, but it's a hell of a long shot for Kerry to win office and the popular vote is already lost. So I'm beginning to get used to the idea that we've got another four years of Bush. I'm fundamentally incapable of more than short-term pessimism so I'm starting to think of the upside.

    Bush and the Republicans will now have to take responsibility for the deficit they've created, the war in Iraq, the continued hunt for Osama, the jobless recovery of the economy, the overstretched military and the likely impact on military morale, the world reaction to our policies and actions, N. Korea, Iran, etc. etc.

    Meanwhile, the Democrats need to hold the line and ensure that civil rights aren't eroded (any further), that the Supreme Court isn't stacked with right wing nuts, that torture and deportation to torturing countries isn't our policy, that the judicial branch isn't neutered, that the courts remain available to citizens, that the needy and poor among us aren't on their own, that the world knows that America is a diverse country.

    In addition to that, we have two years to build on the strength we found during this election season. We need to develop a clear and common philosophy, we need to wrest the ownership of faith from the right, we need to build a disciplined and effective message machine, we need to build intellectual resources that will feed our movement and our message, we need to market our ideas and our policy positions on a constant basis, we need to continue to develop intertwining networks of interested groups that move us forward, that can take action on a moment's notice.

    We have time to do all of that but we have to start now. We need to spend some time doing an 'after action report' on the election that just ended. What did we do right or wrong? What did the opposition do right or wrong? What can we learn from that? What we CAN'T do is sink into navel-gazing depression and infighting. We don't have time.

    So let's give ourselves until the election is formally announced and if Bush wins until the Republican gloating is over. Then let's get going. Time is short.

    Posted at 03:12 pm by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    Go ahead, say it. I dare you.  

    We will soldier on

    andante:

    So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory. - Franklin D. Roosevelt, Inaugural Address, March 4, 1933

    Fear drove the election, pure and simple. Fear of gays, fear of atheism, fear of terrorists - fear, fear, fear.

    Obviously, this is a household in varying degrees of mourning and anger.

    I don't buy a lot of things about this election....not yet. I don't put much faith in provisional ballots, but I do want to see the final absentee ballot count - particularly in Florida.

    I also don't buy the idea that the "youth vote" let us down, certainly not in this area. University of North Carolina at Greensboro students stood in line for hours, by the thousands, to cast their votes. One of the most beautiful sights of yesterday - hundreds of young women from Bennett College (Greensboro) marching and singing en masse to their polling place.

    And frankly, I'm not too disappointed to see Tom Daschle lose his Senate seat. Now more than ever before, we need a Democratic leader in the Senate with an iron backbone and a safer political seat.

    This fight is far from over, and I'm not talking about the presidential election. We must - MUST - continue to support those with the courage to fight right-wing judicial appointees and use every ounce of our persuasive efforts on the fence-sitters.

    We must continue to shame the administration into providing for the health and welfare of our elderly, veterans, and precious children.

    And if the White House is lost, perhaps it's a good year to lose. The Bush administration has buried itself in a huge pile of manure and it's up to us to push their noses in it and force them to take responsibility for it.

    I read somewhere - I can't recall where - that a Bush win would set back the conservative movement for generations; the more I think about it, the more I agree.

    But it's tragic the world will have to suffer for it.

    In the meantime, let's continue to hold their feet to the fire. I draw comfort from the words of FDR, quoted above. Fear will not be triumphant forever.

    Posted at 03:05 pm by Ethel, the Early-Warning Frog
    Go ahead, say it. I dare you.  

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